Tales Of Our Times: Paths To ‘Sustainable’ Are Craggy

Tales of Our Times
By JOHN BARTLIT
New Mexico Citizens
for Clean Air & Water
 
Paths To ‘Sustainable’ Are Craggy
 
What does a “sustainable” world look like? As time rolls on, people wrestle with this puzzle. Yet a question less often asked is how do we get from here to there? That is, how do we work the hard part, the transition?

Being sustainable, whatever it means, is infinitely easier than becoming sustainable. The path, not the destination, is the snarl that needs more of the bright light. I offer no swift map, but I can point out the starting line. I bring some craggy questions to explore.

Say for instance, new and improved hybrid and electric cars were to become commonplace and gasoline sales dropped to half what they are now. What happens? The demand for crude oil falls below projections, adding to the life of proven reserves. The price of crude changes in some uncertain ways: the forces of supply and demand would say it drops.

Energy users may get a business boost and the next generation’s business prospects take an upturn. The gasoline supply business takes a downturn. When fuel-processing volumes drop, the cost per unit rises. Unless profit margins on gas sales rise to compensate for the lower volume, gasoline suppliers at every point see a drop in their incomes.

Some will leave the gasoline business for other lines of work, which may affect the business climate in those fields. All this change has large impacts, but none of it is new in the world. A great chain of such effects carried us from the first producing oil well in 1859 near Titusville, Pennsylvania, to where we are today. Yet the speed of change hits people harder than the change itself, which is a strong reason to look more at transitions.

What happens to highways? Better gas mileage does not reduce the use of highways; it may even increase it. In large part, highways are built and maintained with gas taxes. Less gas sold equates to less tax income unless the tax rate is hiked, which drives people crazy.

The ripples from fuel-efficient cars go out farther than off-road vehicles.

Take another transition to more sustainable. Say, a town were to save using half the fresh water it now uses. The rate of water withdrawn from the aquifer is cut in half, which affects water balances all around. Depending on the prior use rate, compared with nature’s recharge rate, aquifer levels over an area well beyond the town may fall slower, or start to rise. The water levels in the region’s wells and rivers may rise, which moves water towards others.

Current water laws have features that tie the rights to water (that is, the “ownership” of water) to the “beneficial use” of water. Therefore the legal standing of the unused water rights will likely come under new scrutiny. Sooner or later water rights may shift around, unless laws change before then.

We live in an interconnected world.

As with gasoline, when water-processing volumes drop, the cost per unit rises. The same equipment must be maintained to process and distribute water. Maintenance of the town’s water system requires nearly the same dollars as it did, which when sales fall means raising the unit price. A price hike will likely be seen from conserving. Even though a family’s monthly water bill does not rise, a higher unit price ruffles water users.

On the business side, the timing of change is a constant question. The cheapest time to install a cleaner, more efficient process is when the old-style equipment is amortized and well worn. Companies who look ahead can make changes at the times that best suit them, while the old guards squander time and money fighting change.

Progress in due time depends on attention to the pathways.

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