By RICHARD SKOLNIK
Los Alamos
There is an enormous amount of misinformation being spread about COVID-19. Since “Los Alamos runs on science”, in this and related articles, I will help us separate COVID-19 Fact from “COVID-19 Science Fiction.” To help the community assess the validity of my comments, I include sources at the end of the article.
“Vaccines don’t work!!!
A number of people continue to say that “vaccines don’t work” because, among other things, they don’t stop all infection. However, studies show that vaccines remain effective in preventing both infection from the Delta variant, as well as hospitalization and deaths. A Scottish study, for example, showed the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be 79% effective in preventing infection. A US study among health care members over 12 years of age showed it to be 75% effective in preventing infection. A just published study showed Pfizer’s effectiveness against infection did wane to 47% over five months. Yet, it remained 93% effective after 6 months against hospitalization. None of these studies took account of “booster shots,” which would enhance vaccine effectiveness.
Moreover, hospital tracking data shows: that “COVID-related hospitalizations among unvaccinated people range from 95% to 99.9% by state.” In addition, in a survey of 50 ICUs in 17 states, 94% of the patients were unvaccinated. If you want “observational data,” talk to any critical care doctor (my son is one) and they will tell you the same.
Vaccinated people are also much less likely to die from COVID than unvaccinated people. Indiana reported that for the week ending September 23: “246 people died from COVID. Only three, or 1.2%, were fully vaccinated.” North Carolina recently reported that unvaccinated people were “15.4 times, or 1,540 percent, more likely to die from COVID-19” during the four-week period ending Aug. 21, 2021. An analysis that our own Eli Ben-Naim did of the relationship between the rate of vaccination and the rate of death in US states showed that a 25% increase in the vaccination rate was associated with a 79% reduction in the number of deaths per capita.
“The Bottom Line”
Vaccines against the virus that causes COVID are not perfect. However, they remain effective at preventing infection, hospitalization, and death. In addition, the idea of needing a booster for these vaccines or possibly even getting them annually should not surprise us. Almost all of the childhood vaccines require boosters; adults may need boosting of vaccines they took as a child and of adult vaccines, such that for shingles. The vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus cost between $10 a dose for J & J and $20 to $37 for Pfizer and Moderna. Thus, unlike treatment, which I will address in a future article, these vaccines are remarkably cost-effective. Those who don’t get vaccinated put themselves at substantial risk, as you can see above. They also put risk the rest of us at risk, including our children who are too young to be vaccinated and others who can’t be vaccinated for medical reasons or who are immunocompromised. Moreover, in June, July and August 2021, $5.7 billion was spent on costs that could have been prevented through vaccination and your tax dollars bear an important part of such costs.
Sources:
(See Table 1A in
(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html)
(https://abcnews.go.com/US/vast-majority-icu-patients-covid-19-unvaccinated-abc/story?id=79128401)
(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext)
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/vaccine-booster-shots
Editor’s Note: Richard Skolnik is the former regional director for health for South Asia at the World Bank. He was the director of an AIDS treatment program for Harvard and taught Global Health at the George Washington University and Yale. He is the author of Global Health 101 and the instructor for Yale/Coursera’s Essentials of Global Health. Skolnik has written this article in his personal capacity.