By RICHARD SKOLNIK
Los Alamos
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series of COVID-19 Updates by Richard Skolnik that appear bi-weekly in the Los Alamos Daily Post. These are meant to keep the community informed on the status of the pandemic, critical new findings on the pandemic, and what this information suggests for our community’s response to COVID-19. These updates will complement the data that Eli Ben-Naim prepares for the Post. Unless otherwise noted, data is from the New York Times and the New Mexico Department of Health.
Pandemic Data And Trends
The US passed 700,000 deaths from COVID and more people have now died of COVID in the US than died from the 1918 flu epidemic.
In the US, cases declined by 24%, hospitalizations by 20%, and deaths by 12% over the last two weeks. The daily average of new cases in the US was about 104,000, with a daily average rate of 31 cases per 100,000.
Cases rose in New Mexico by 5% but hospitalizations fell by 8% and deaths fell by 16%. The daily average number of cases was 686, with a rate of 33 per 100,000, which is now higher than the US average. Almost 71% of all New Mexicans over age 18 have been fully vaccinated.
Los Alamos had a daily average over the last week of 19 cases per 100,000. This was an increase of 189% over the last two weeks. This was the second fastest rate of increase in the state. The age distribution of new cases (thanks to Eli Ben-Naim) is shown in the graphic below. All 10 of the infections in ages 0 to 19 were reported in the last week. Almost 89% of the adults over 18 in Los Alamos have been fully vaccinated.
The bars in this chart show the number of COVID-19 diagnoses in Los Alamos by age group for the week ending Oct. 4. Source: New Mexico Department of Health. Created by Eli Ben-Naim
Important Pandemic Information
New Mexico has started to provide Pfizer boosters.
The FDA will meet on October 14, 15, and 26 on requests from Moderna and J&J for emergency use authorization of boosters and from Pfizer for emergency use authorization of vaccines for ages 5-11.
Reports from clinical trials suggest the new pill to treat COVID from Merck, if used quickly after infection, will reduce severe illness and hospitalization by about 50% and will cost about $1,200 per dose. Note, however, that vaccines cost about $25 dollars. In addition, the latest data clearly shows that vaccines are much more effective at reducing severe infection, hospitalization, and death than this therapeutic would be. The new therapeutic will be valuable but not cost-effective compared to vaccines.
There were 173,000 children infected in the week ending Sept. 30. This was a decrease compared to the 226,000 cases in the week ending Sept. 16.
Ten states have increasing rates of cases, 19 states have increasing rates of hospitalization, and several states continue to have overwhelmed hospital systems. Two states, Alaska and Idaho, have continued with crisis standards of care.
What Do We need to Do in Los Alamos?
While infections are going down in most places, they have begun to increase here, especially among our schoolchildren. Thus, we need to ensure that we wear good quality masks properly indoors and social distance, as appropriate. We also need to avoid indoor community or school gatherings where families will mix for any length of time unmasked, such as when food is served. Such gatherings for now should be held outdoors. Surveillance testing should roll-out soon in our schools. The recent substantial increase in infections in schools highlights the importance of trying to ensure that as large a share of our families participate in regular surveillance testing of our K-12 students as possible. The LAPS has effectively put mitigation measures in place; however, ensuring they are properly and consistently done across the LAPS will demand continuing and rigorous attention.
Editor’s Note: Richard Skolnik is the former regional director for health for South Asia at the World Bank. He was the director of an AIDS treatment program for Harvard and taught Global Health at the George Washington University and Yale. He is the author of Global Health 101 and the instructor for Yale/Coursera’s Essentials of Global Health. Skolnik has written this article in his personal capacity.