Skolnik: COVID Briefing Note #8 – Omicron is Coming

By RICHARD SKOLNIK
Los Alamos

Editor’s Note: This is the eighth in a series of COVID-19 Updates by Richard Skolnik that appear bi-weekly in the Los Alamos Daily Post. These are meant to keep the community informed on the status of the pandemic, critical new findings on the pandemic, and what this information suggests for our community’s response to COVID-19. These updates complement the data that Eli Ben-Naim prepares for the Post. Unless otherwise noted, data is from the New York Times and the New Mexico Department of Health.

Pandemic Data and Trends – For the Week Ending Dec. 13, 2021

Globally, COVID is in its fourth “wave,” with a 7-day rolling average of about 600,000 cases per day. The highest number of new cases recorded per day globally was around 900,000 in April 2021. Deaths globally have risen over seven different periods. The 7-day rolling average for deaths globally is 8,300 a day. This compares with the highest number of deaths per day of 15,000 in May 2021.

In the US, the daily average of new cases increased by 49% over the last two weeks. Hospitalizations increased by 22% and deaths increased by 40%. The daily average of new cases in the US over the last week was about 120,100, equal to 36 cases per 100,000 population. Only five states had decreasing rates of new cases.

Over the last two weeks, the daily average of new cases in New Mexico rose by 5%. Hospitalizations rose by 12% but deaths decreased by 17%. The daily average number of cases over the last week was 1,132, or 54 per 100,000. Almost 75% of all New Mexicans over age 18 have been “fully vaccinated.” However, only 56% of those 12-17 and 10.1% of those 5-11 have been fully vaccinated and only 29% of those over 18 have had a booster shot.

Los Alamos had a daily average over the last week of about 4 cases, equal to about 19 per 100,000 population. This was an increase of 30% over the last 14 days. The epidemic curve for Los Alamos since the pandemic began and the age distribution of new cases over the last two weeks are shown in the graphics below. (Thanks to Eli Ben-Naim). About 93% of the population over 18 years of age in Los Alamos County has been “fully vaccinated.”

Chart showing COVID-19 diagnosis in Los Alamos. Created by Eli Ben-Naim

Chart showing COVID-19 diagnosis by age group in Los Alamos. Created by Eli Ben-Naim

Important Pandemic Information

The US has passed 50 million infections and 800,000 deaths from COVID. More than 120,000 children in the US have lost a parent or caregiver to COVID.

For the week ending December 9, there were 164,000 new cases among children, more than 30,000 greater than in the previous week. In the states that reported, between .1% and 1.9% of the children who were infected were hospitalized.

In New Mexico from February 1, 2021 to December 6, 2021, the risk of being infected, hospitalized, and dying was 4.2 times, 5.8 times, and 8.5 times greater if you were “not fully vaccinated” than if you were “fully vaccinated.”

New questions are being raised about the effectiveness and safety of the Merck drug against COVID. However, Pfizer trials showed its new drug was up to 90% effective in preventing hospitalization and death from COVID, when taken early and properly. The FDA has not yet approved either drug.

The Omicron variant is now circulating throughout the US, including NM. There is not yet enough evidence to make definitive statements on how easily Omicron spreads, how sick it makes people, and how much it can escape natural or vaccine-induced immunity. However, early evidence suggests that this variant is more transmissible than any previous variant.

What Can We Do Next?

People who are eligible but not yet vaccinated need to be vaccinated urgently. People who are eligible but not yet boosted need to be boosted urgently. People who are eligible need to be vaccinated against influenza. The last thing we need right now is a “twindemic” of COVID and the flu.

Those participating in indoor gatherings over the holidays should use a rapid antigen test before attending such gatherings and encourage other participants to do the same. It would also be prudent to test after the gatherings and before returning to work or school.

It is also important for the LAPS to plan carefully now for testing as many of its students as possible after they return from the holidays. The evidence suggests that not doing this could be costly.

The NMPED changed its Toolkit in September to note that HEPA-based air purifiers could be an effective adjunct to improved school ventilation systems. The County has federal funds that can be used to purchase these air purifiers, but this has not yet been done. This needs to be treated with urgency.

Concerned citizens need to demand of their elected officials, among other things, a more coherent and accessible testing regime domestically and more urgent and higher levels of support for getting vaccines to low-income countries. These are essential to helping get COVID to a level “we can live with.”

Editor’s Note: Richard Skolnik is the former regional director for health for South Asia at the World Bank. He was the director of an AIDS treatment program for Harvard and taught Global Health at the George Washington University and Yale. He is the author of Global Health 101 and the instructor for Yale/Coursera’s Essentials of Global Health. Skolnik has written this article in his personal capacity.

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