Skolnik: COVID Briefing Note #10 – Omicron Is Surging

By RICHARD SKOLNIK
Los Alamos

Editor’s Note: This is the 10th in a series of COVID-19 Updates by Richard Skolnik that appear bi-weekly in the Los Alamos Daily Post. These are meant to keep the community informed on the status of the pandemic, critical new findings on the pandemic, and what this information suggests for our community’s response to COVID-19. These updates complement the data that Eli Ben-Naim prepares for the Post. Unless otherwise noted, data is from the New York Times and the New Mexico Department of Health.

Pandemic Data and Trends – For the Week Ending Jan. 18, 2022 

In the US, the daily average of new cases increased by 62 percent over the last two weeks. Hospitalizations and deaths both increased by 54 percent. The daily average of new cases in the US over the last week was about 791,000, equal to 238 cases per 100,000 population. Rhode Island had the highest rate per 100,000 at 457 and Maine had the lowest rate at 80. 

Over the last two weeks, the daily average of new cases in New Mexico rose by 207 percent. Hospitalizations increased by 24 percent and deaths increased by 31 percent. The daily average number of cases over the last week was 5,557 or 265 per 100,000. About 76 percent of all New Mexicans over age 18 have “completed their vaccine series.” However, only 40 percent of them have had a booster shot. About 58 percent of those 12-17 and 22 percent of those 5-11 have “completed their vaccine series.” 

Los Alamos had a daily average over the last week of about 57 cases, equal to about 294 per 100,000 population. This was an increase of 267 percent over the last 14 days and is the highest number of new cases since the pandemic began. Test positivity over the last 14 days has averaged 16 percent. There was also one death of a Los Alamos County resident last week. The epidemic curve for Los Alamos since July 2021 and the age distribution of new cases over the last two weeks are shown in the graphics below (Thanks to Eli Ben-Naim). About 91 percent of all people in Los Alamos County over 12 years of age “have completed their vaccine series.”

Chart showing COVID-19 diagnosis in Los Alamos. Created by Eli Ben-Naim Chart showing COVID-19 diagnosis by age group in Los Alamos. Created by Eli Ben-Naim

Important Pandemic Information

Pediatric cases in the US tripled in two weeks. For the week ending Jan. 13, more than 1 million children were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was four times the rate of last winter’s surge. The rate of childhood hospitalization and severe illness remains low. However, the rate of children being hospitalized and the number of children hospitalized daily are both the highest since the pandemic began. 

The US government has begun a program to send four rapid antigen test kits to every residential address in the US. You can order them at usps.com/covidtests.

CDC updated its guidance on masks, noting that N95 and KN95 masks offer the best protection and that people should wear the most protective mask that they will wear correctly and consistently.

At least nine hospitals in New Mexico are operating under “Crisis Standards of Care,” including Presbyterian Espanola, Presbyterian Albuquerque, Rust Medical Center in Rio Rancho, and UNM.

In New Mexico, from Dec. 13, 2021 to Jan. 10, the risk of being infected, hospitalized, and dying was 2.2 times, 6.7 times, and 17.6 times greater if you were “not fully vaccinated” than if you were “fully vaccinated.” This data does not take account of boosters, which new data from Switzerland show further reduce the risk of death.

Critical Questions 

If vaccines don’t stop all infections, should we still get vaccinated? 

Yes. Look again at the data above. Although vaccines will not stop all infections, they remain very effective in preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death. In addition, evolving data suggests that an important share of people of all ages who get COVID-19 will suffer after-effects of their infection, such as sleep disorders, fatigue, shortness of breath, anxiety and depression.

It’s also possible that COVID-19 may trigger diabetes. The largest study done in the US, for example, showed that 14 percent of the adults hospitalized with severe COVID-19 developed diabetes. Moreover, a study of almost 14,000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Florida concluded that those who get severely ill from COVID are 2.5 times more likely to die within the year than people who never contracted the coronavirus. Simply put, we need to continue to do what we can to avoid getting infected or spreading the infection to others.

Editor’s Note: Richard Skolnik is the former regional director for health for South Asia at the World Bank. He was the director of an AIDS treatment program for Harvard and taught Global Health at the George Washington University and Yale. He is the author of Global Health 101 and the instructor for Yale/Coursera’s Essentials of Global Health. Skolnik has written this article in his personal capacity.

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