The National Weather Service (NWS) in Abluquerque reports that the hot and mostly dry conditions of late will be abruptly altered.
- Type – Hot and mostly dry period coming to an end with significant increase in showers/storms.
- Timing – Today through Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Location – All of northern and central New Mexico.
- Hot and mostly dry conditions today with potential for strong downburst winds from dry T-storms this afternoon.
- Strong back door cold front to bring gusty winds over eastern New Mexico tonight. Strong winds will be channeled through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain of New Mexico into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
- Temperatures dropping by 10 to 20 degrees between Monday and Tuesday in east.
- Sudden increase in shower and T-storm activity, first in eastern New Mexico, then spreading west. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
High pressure will continue to build over New Mexico today, leading to warm to hot conditions over most areas. Some meager moisture will be in place, and this will allow a few showers and storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. Any of the shower and storm activity today will be capable of producing gusty downburst winds in excess of 50 mph. By the evening and through the overnight hours a back door front will enter northeastern New Mexico, bringing bountiful moisture to the state. This front will spread south and west through Tuesday morning with the moisture and cooling temperatures accompanying. This will lead to a significant upward trend in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.
High confidence on timing and the change toward a wetter pattern. Confidence for heavy rainfall threat Tuesday and Wednesday is moderate.