By PETE SHEEHEY
Los Alamos County Councilor

Rather than “social distancing” to stop the spread of the COVID-19 virus, we mostly need physical distancing and social cohesion.

Physical distancing: if everyone covers their mouth and nose, and keeps six feet or more apart in public spaces, that minimizes breathing each other’s exhaled particles, the main path of contagion for the virus.

Social cohesion: only by all of us observing safe practices, as we help each other and do our business locally, can we buy time for medical research to develop effective treatments and vaccines, allowing a safe return to normal society and economy.

In four months, COVID-19 has sickened more than 1.7 million Americans (www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html), killed 100,000, and caused a worldwide economic recession. Antibiotic, antiviral, or immune system-suppressive drugs have helped some patients, but there is no “miracle drug” that works for everyone. Infected people of all ages and health status may experience no symptoms, mild symptoms, lung or other organ failure, or death.

Asymptomatic carriers can still be contagious. It is not known if or how long a person who has recovered from COVID-19 is immune to re-infection, nor is it known how long a recovered patient might remain contagious. For anyone to ignore COVID-safe practices today is equivalent to playing Russian Roulette, not just with one’s own life and health, but with the lives of loved ones and all the members of our community.

New Mexico’s stay-at-home and safe practices orders, begun after the first cases were reported March 11, have successfully reduced the statewide rate of infection, but we still have over 7,000 infections and 320 deaths, with serious ongoing community spread in some areas. Taiwan and New Zealand very quickly instituted mandatory safe practices such as use of masks, widespread testing, quarantining, and contact tracing of all potentially infected individuals. These countries have successfully stopped community spread of the virus.

Taiwan, a nation of 23.8 million, most living in densely populated areas, saw its first case January 21, and to date has limited its total to 441 cases (7 deaths); 386 caught the disease before arriving in Taiwan. By stopping spread and continually watching for virus in the community, Taiwan’s economy has recovered quickly with minimal disruption.

Some have suggested that dropping safe practices for most people and letting the virus spread naturally will lead to “herd immunity”. What we don’t know yet about COVID-19 (exactly how contagious, how deadly, and how long immunity lasts) prevents us from counting on this strategy. When epidemiologists model “herd immunity” using the best present estimates of the disease’s behavior (fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/?cid=referral_taboola_feed), the results are grim: 70% to 90% of Americans infected, millions of deaths.

Los Alamos is fortunate to have had few cases so far. It is likely that much of our town’s population has a condition (greater than 64 years old, high blood pressure, asthma, etc.) that makes one more susceptible to serious illness from COVID-19. We depend on many people, locals and commuters, to provide essential goods and services. Some who serve the public lack health insurance and don’t have or can’t afford to take sick leave. By following safe practices, we can minimize the risk to everyone.

Most local small businesses have shut down or seen huge drops in business. We can help them recover by buying local: contact them over the phone or internet for curbside pick-up or delivery. As they are allowed to open up for in-person service, we need to respect their safety by continuing safe practices.

Research is being done on COVID-19, including at LANL, on the fastest schedule possible. However, the testing needed to establish the safety and effectiveness of new vaccines is generally estimated to take a year or longer. In the meantime, we all need to respect and preserve our own and each other’s health and safety.

All of us working together can minimize the toll of COVID-19: physical distancing, social cohesion.