By WILLIAM C. MEAD
Los Alamos

I read the Op/Ed by Steve Tobin of the BPU with interest. I am glad to see the BPU and DPW thinking about issues and costs of green energy production. I have some observations and questions about specifics and about general societal attempts to reduce CO2 emissions.

I’ll offer a few observations and some questions about Mr. Tobin’s discussion. At face value, Mr. Tobin seems to be calling for a radical change in direction for 1) “green” (solar) electrical production and 2) related personal investments. I will deal separately with these two recommendations.

I certainly hope that the BPU’s research on solar power is both broader and deeper than the two references included in the Op/Ed. In particular, I would caution relying too much on the generalities of both studies mentioned. The situation is not as simple as “For every $1 you put into a utility scale solar, you need to put $3 or $4 into RTS to produce the same unit of energy.” The LAZARD report quotes ranges of costs that strongly overlap, so the details matter!

Are there related studies that consider end-to-end carbon production over the life of solar power installations? This is a way of analyzing “greenness” that is starting to be considered, and I think more attention needs to be directed this way.

Regarding the contract with FF-PPA: is it realistic and reliable. How far along is the planned facility? What is the probability that it will meet planned dates and costs?

Personal decisions are likewise made with incomplete knowledge. We expected the costs of solar to drop, so it is not surprising that our roof-top solar can now (or soon) appear to be less cost-effective. However, I note that the retail cost of electricity has not decreased noticeably since we installed it in 2017.

How well thought-out are electrification decisions for the country? The attractiveness of an EV vehicle to me is constrained by various factors: 1) capital cost, 2) insurance costs, 3) availability of charging stations, and 4) inconvenience of charging on long trips, 5) specialized resources used by EVs. We have been driving hybrids since 2009 and find them very reliable and convenient. Our fleet-averaged (two cars!) mileage is about 47 mpg, which represents a substantial improvement compared with most existing cars.

When we consider the suitability of a hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or EV car for our next purchase, I note the following uncertainties. What will happen to the price of gasoline and electricity over the next 15 years? That will depend on large-scale questions. For example, it is foreseeable that gas usage will decrease. So, the pump price might increase. However, the electric grid is fully subscribed, and even groaning at peak times with occasional brown-outs and black-outs. Air conditioning energy demands and costs might rise, especially in places like Los Alamos, where the climate has allowed most residents to be satisfied with fresh-air cooling and well-insulated housing. Widespread increases in electrical usage and distribution requirements will almost certainly increase the retail costs of electricity. So, what strategy works best?

Re. household heating, I note that we installed a forced-air heat pump several years ago in a former house, and found it to be marginal. It was noisy and it switched over to purely electric heat as outside temperatures dropped. Installation cost was more than triple that of a conventional furnace. Are heat pumps acceptable in cost and performance in today’s or near-future markets?

Lastly, I note that the “greening” of America is a controversial and highly politically charged policy area. Political leaders and parties differ enormously on the subject, so there might be considerable whiplash as US society tries to choose future pathways.

Economics of energy transition is difficult, too. The petroleum industry has huge investments and considerable clout in determining energy production. The nuclear industry in the USA has large barriers to overcome: cost, safety, and regulation issues.

The USA’s presence (absence!) in the world’s green energy market is lamentable. As a country, we are more resistant to advances in science and technology than one could hope, aside from the realm of entertainment!