By ALLEN MCQUISTONJemez Insurance Agency
Serving Los Alamos Since 1963
If you’ve felt like winter never really showed up this year, you re not imagining it—and that’s exactly why fire officials are paying close attention right now.
A Season Starting Earlier Than Usual
In New Mexico, fire season typically runs from March through June, with the most dangerous window landing in April and May before the monsoon arrives.
This year, though, conditions are lining up for a season that started early and could run hotter than normal.
Across the Four Corners region, fire danger is already showing up weeks ahead of schedule, with conditions resembling what we usually see closer to summer.
What’s Driving the Risk
1. A Historic Snow Drought
Northern New Mexico depends heavily on winter snowpack. It acts like a slow-release water source, keeping forests and vegetation moist into late spring.
This year, that buffer is largely missing.
- Snowpack has been well below normal across the state
- Some areas received less than 10 percent of normal precipitation during key winter months
The result is simple: vegetation dries out earlier, and it stays dry longer.
2. Warmer Than Normal Temperatures
2026 has already brought:
- A record March heat wave
- Continued forecasts calling for warmer-than-average conditions statewide
Heat doesn’t just make things uncomfortable—it accelerates how quickly fuels (grass, brush, trees) dry out. That’s a major driver of wildfire intensity.
3. Widespread Drought Conditions
As of spring 2026:
- Roughly 80 to 96 percent of New Mexico is under drought conditions
That kind of coverage means fire risk isn’t isolated—it’s regional. When a spark happens, the environment is already primed to carry it.
4. Long-Range Forecast Signals
Looking ahead into late spring and early summer:
- Much of New Mexico is expected to have above-normal wildfire potential
- The broader western U.S. is also trending toward a longer and more active fire season due to persistent dryness and heat
There’s also concern that if multiple states burn at once, firefighting resources could get stretched thin.
What This Means for Northern New Mexico
For areas like Santa Fe, Los Alamos, Taos, and the surrounding forests, the takeaway is straightforward:
- Fire season is arriving earlier
- Conditions are drier and hotter than average
- The window of elevated risk is likely to last longer than usual
That’s why agencies have already started acting. For example, the Santa Fe National Forest entered Stage 1 fire restrictions as early as April, with plans to keep them in place through the season.
A Practical Perspective
If there’s one way to think about this season, it’s this:
Normally, spring gives northern New Mexico a gradual transition into fire season. This year, that transition has been skipped.
Instead of easing into risk, we’re starting closer to peak conditions.
That doesn’t guarantee a catastrophic season—but it does mean fires that do start have a higher chance of spreading quickly and becoming harder to control.
At the end of the day, fire season in northern New Mexico is something people here have learned to live with, but not ignore. Years like this simply raise the stakes a bit. Paying attention to conditions, making small adjustments around your property, and staying aware of local updates can make a meaningful difference. It is not about overreacting. It is about respecting the environment we live in and being just prepared enough that, if something does happen, you are not caught off guard.