BY PAUL GESSING
President
New Mexico Rio Grande Foundation

I recently came across a concept called The Curley effect. It has nothing to do with Larry and Moe. After some research I learned that The Curley effect, coined by economists Edward L. Glaeser and Andrei Shleifer, is a real concept in political economy. It describes how politicians use wasteful redistributive policies and divisive rhetoric to drive opposing voters out of a city (or in our case a state), thus securing their electoral base.

Named after former Boston Mayor James Michael Curley, it explains how leaders can maintain power while causing long-term economic stagnation by shaping the electorate to their advantage. Intentionally or unintentionally, it is hard to not think about modern New Mexico politics.

Indeed, it seems to me that the Curley effect has been in effect here in recent years. How so?

For starters, a recent Wallethub report (one of many similar reports) ranks all US states based on the “Return on Investment” or ROI from the tax dollars spent. Surprising to no one New Mexico came in 50th—dead last in that report. The variables ranked include education and health care systems, public safety, the economy, and infrastructure. Even the staunchest defender of New Mexico must agree that the state struggles in all these areas.

Politicians can’t justifiably claim poverty. A few years ago Sen. Finance Committee Chair George Munoz said, “There’s going to be a lot more money than we know what to do with in the next few years” back in 2021. More recently Sen. Moe Maestas, an Albuquerque Democrat, told the Santa Fe New Mexican that as a state “we have money to burn.” Sadly, the State seems more interested in “burning” money than returning it to taxpayers.

Sadly, no amount of money is going to make up for New Mexico’s failed policies. Adding pre-K and free childcare and free college aren’t going to shift our State’s concerning loss of young people. Albuquerque Public schools has lost 27,000 students (30% of its total population) since 2010. The State’s school system lost 7,500 students last year alone.

If numbers don’t do it for you, I recently received this email from former New Mexico business owner Ronald Kaehr who owned a coatings business based in Albuquerque (his daughter also ran for the Legislature):

My wife and I sold the company a few years ago and moved to Tennessee where the tax situation is better. Our daughter’s family came here because the schools are better. We live in Williamson County where the lifestyle would come as a shock to most New Mexicans because people are allowed to be prosperous. In-N-Out is putting their eastern headquarters here in Franklin. We loved what New Mexico was but not what it has become.

This all reminds us of Democrat Sen. Mimi Stewart’s 2021 statement “If you like Texas better, just pack up your bags and move – it’s not that far.” Of course, Stewart and the rest of New Mexico’s Democrat politicians have been effective over the years at pushing people (especially conservatives) out of New Mexico. The Curley effect may be an indication that this is an electoral strategy of the Democratic Party.

Can New Mexico change? Should conservative voters in New Mexico feel obligated to stay and fight or should they have an exit plan? Can diversifying New Mexico’s economy bring more political competition to the State?

I don’t have answers to those questions. What I do believe is that the failure of our political leadership to make fundamental but straightforward changes to New Mexico aren’t necessarily accidents. Simple, tried-and-true strategies like reducing taxes and regulations to make our economy more diversified and people more prosperous combined with changes to our education system to improve results and build our workforce have not been undertaken in significant ways.

Until and unless New Mexico’s voters decide they want something better for themselves and their families the Curley effect will continue to dominate New Mexico.

Paul Gessing is president of New Mexico’s Rio Grande Foundation, an independent, nonpartisan, tax-exempt research and educational organization dedicated to promoting prosperity for New Mexico based on principles of limited government, economic freedom and individual responsibility.