The daily change in the total number of people either dead or in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, in Colorado (green dots) and New Mexico (yellow dots). Created by Nels Hoffman

By NELS HOFFMAN
Los Alamos

The rate at which people are dying or going into hospitals in Colorado, because of COVID-19, continues to decrease from its peak value seen on April 3. Meanwhile, the rate in New Mexico is roughly steady, but may be decreasing. 

The above figure shows the daily change in the total number of people either dead or in the hospital because of COVID-19, per 100,000 population, in Colorado (green dots) and New Mexico (yellow dots). 

The 5-day moving average of the rate is shown as a black line for each state. This is the average rate over a 5-day interval centered on the line.

In Colorado, the peak occurred on April 3, when 127 people in Colorado either died (14 people) or were hospitalized (113 people) because of COVID-19. The peak hasn’t been surpassed in the nine days since then. 127 people amounts to about 2.2 people per 100,000 population in Colorado. Most recently, on April 12, the rate was less than half as large, as only 57 people either died (16 people) or went into the hospital (41 people). 

In New Mexico, the peak hospitalization + death rate occurred more recently than in Colorado, on April 9, when 15 people either died (1 person) or were hospitalized (14 people). This amounts to about 0.7 per 100,000 population. But for the most recent three days, the New Mexico rate has remained well below that peak level. 

The hospitalization rate is the difference between the rate at which people are going into the hospital and the rate at which they are released from the hospital. If more people go out than go in, the rate can be less than zero, as happened in New Mexico on April 4. 

We add the death rate to the hospitalization rate, because one reason the number of hospitalized people might decrease is that they die. So to guard against that kind of spurious decrease in hospitalization, we add the two rates. 

Data come from the health departments of the two states: https://cv.nmhealth.org/newsroom/, https://cv.nmhealth.org/, and https://covid19.colorado.gov/case-data.