COVID-19 Growth Rate Slowed Abruptly Around March 29

The growth rate of the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases slowed abruptly in several states around March 29, probably as a result of the shut-down of schools and businesses around March 16, together with social distancing and stay-home guidelines. The change is most noticeable for Colorado, where the doubling time lengthened from 3.0 days to 5.8 days, increasing by nearly a factor of two. New Mexico’s doubling time lengthened from 3.5 days to 5.2 days, and Florida’s lengthened from 2.9 days to 4.6 days. This figure shows the recent growth in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases for several US states, using data through Thursday, April. 2. Dashed lines show exponential growth curves, labeled by doubling time in days. Data are from several sources: from state reports (for New Mexico and Colorado), from https://ncov2019.live/data, from the Johns Hopkins U. GitHub repository https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19, from https://github.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California, and from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state). Created by Nels Hoffman

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