Figure 1. New Mexico excluding McKinley and San Juan Counties: The COVID-19 doubling time is shown by NMDOH reporting date. Also presented are the doubling times for all of New Mexico, for Bernalillo County and for McKinley and San Juan Counties combined. Created by Marv Alme
Figure 2. Projected COVID-19 dynamics for New Mexico (excluding McKinley and San Juan Counties) assuming the doubling times from April 18 to April 27 repeat in a 10-day cycle. The solid curves are from the DOH reported data. The dotted show the results of the projection through the first week of June. The number of active cases is estimated assuming an average recovery time is 10 days. Created by Marv Alme
By MARV ALME
Los Alamos
The COVID-19 Doubling Time for New Mexico (Excluding McKinley and San Juan Counties) Appears to be Varying between 20 and 25 Days
Figure 1 above shows that the COVID-19 doubling time for New Mexico with McKinley and San Juan Counties excluded.
Also displayed in Figure 1 are the doubling times for all of New Mexico, for Bernalillo County and for McKinley and San Juan Counties combined.
We see that the doubling time for Bernalillo County has varied between about 20 days and 25 days during the last two weeks.
The doubling time for New Mexico with McKinley and San Juan Counties excluded has varied in about that same range for the past 10 days. This is a marked improvement from a month ago when the doubling time was in the range of 6 to 7 days.
However, as we look at the data for both Bernalillo County and for the 31 Counties combined, we are wondering if this 20 to 25 day doubling time is the extent of the improvement that can be expected from the current New Mexico stay-at-home/business closure policies.
To examine the pandemic dynamics if this is the case, we have projected the number of new COVID-19 positive tests from now until the first week in June assuming that the doubling times from April 18 to April 27 repeat in a 10-day cycle.
The number of active cases is estimated assuming an average recovery time is 10 days. The exponential growth in the number of active cases is independent of the length of the recovery time that we assume given that recovery time is fixed. With the 10 day recovery time, active cases are about 27 percent of the current total of positive tests. With 12 days, active cases would be closer to 32 percent.
What this projection makes obvious is that to control the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico we need to reduce the level of virus transmission that is present with our current processes. The obvious way to do this is with widespread testing, which is why there is such a uniform call for dramatically increased testing from public health experts and the state governors guided by those experts.