This figure shows the estimated Colorado death rate (number of COVID-19 deaths per day), plotted according to the date that the death was reported to CDPHE. The different curves correspond to successive data releases, on dates indicated by the legend. Created by Nels Hoffman
This figure compares the COVID-19 death rates in Colorado and New Mexico, where now the death rates have been expressed per 100,000 population, which takes out the effect of the population difference between the two states. Created by Nels Hoffman
By NELS HOFFMAN
Los Alamos
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) has recently begun releasing the daily rate of deaths from COVID-19, in addition to the cumulative number of deaths.
While it’s apparent from such data that the daily death rate values are only estimates, and are being revised almost every day, it does seem that the Colorado death rate is falling.
The first figure above shows the estimated Colorado death rate (number of COVID-19 deaths per day), plotted according to the date that the death was reported to CDPHE. The different curves correspond to successive data releases, on dates indicated by the legend.
The estimates of the Colorado daily death rate vary rather strongly after early April, but are consistent in showing a peak on about April 9. The death rate seems to have been falling since then, but the picture is uncertain owing to variation among the estimates. The variation arises because of delays in reporting the deaths and in identifying any given death as the result of COVID-19, and because of occasional duplicate reports.
The second figure compares the COVID-19 death rates in Colorado and New Mexico, where now the death rates have been expressed per 100,000 population, which takes out the effect of the population difference between the two states.
Even with the uncertainty noted above, and the strong day-to-day fluctuations, it seems clear that the COVID-19 death rate in New Mexico is now higher than in Colorado. But the New Mexico rate is determined from the daily change in the cumulative total of deaths, since the New Mexico Department of Health doesn’t report the daily death rate. So it’s possible that many of the New Mexico deaths actually occurred significantly earlier than they are reported in the cumulative total, or than they appear in figure 2.
In spite of all the uncertainties, it appears that the COVID-19 death rate peaked more than two weeks ago in Colorado. But New Mexico may not have peaked yet.
Colorado data come from spreadsheets found at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1bBAC7H-pdEDgPxRuU_eR36ghzc0HWNf1 , which is reached by clicking on “Access the case summary data files” at https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data. New Mexico data come from https://cv.nmhealth.org/newsroom/.