The National Weather Service in Albuquerque reports today that widespread heavy thunderstorm rains are expected this week, with an especially active pattern developing during the Tuesday through Thursday period.
Heavy rain will lead to at least localized flooding, with a very high flash flood threat for area burn scars. At least two “backdoor” cold fronts will enhance shower and thunderstorm development this week.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to ramp up today, and then steadily each day as the week progresses. At this time, the period from Tuesday through Thursday looks to be the most active this week but long-range forecast charts suggest the enhanced thunderstorm period will extend into the upcoming weekend.
Area-wide with the focus for the most widespread heavy rainfall across the northern and western mountains and northeast.
- Extended stretch of very active thunderstorm days this week increasing the threat of flash flooding, particularly over and below burn scars, urban areas and poor drainage areas.
- The latest 7-day total precipitation forecast calls for widespread 1-3″ for many areas of the state with locally higher amounts up to 7-8″ possible through Saturday night, especially over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and northeast quarter.
- Gusty easterly gap winds into the central valleys tonight into Monday morning, and again later Wednesday.
A series of backdoor cold fronts will combine with increasing monsoon moisture and bring a significant increase in thunderstorm activity this week. The main threat from the slow-moving thunderstorms will be heavy rain and flash flooding as well as deadly cloud to ground lightning, but a few storms will likely contain hail and strong outflow winds.