By CHICK KELLER
Los Alamos

This is Chick Keller who went through the Cerro Grande Fire and lost our house. Luckily we took much of our keepsakes and art out of the house but nevertheless lost far too much that couldn’t be replaced.

Since then I’ve studied many fires and how they progressed.

Looking at the fire and listening to the firefighters I’ve come to the following conclusions.

They have done a very good job of making fire breaks to keep the fire from coming towards Los Alamos. Without strong winds coming from the southwest we are in no danger.

But those fire breaks will be easily passed if there are very strong winds. 

The fire is now about 10 miles from town and we are protected by the extensive burn scars from the Las Conchas Fire.

The Lab has done a superb job of making N.M. 501 a very wide fire break by cutting down all surface vegetation for over 100 feet on the west side. So, even with strong winds that may hold.

This leaves the area below the ski hill. The fire could squeeze through a thin forested area between the ski hill and N.M. 501 and hit the town in the Western Area’s Los Alamos Canyon side.

Despite the very high winds during the Cerro Grande Fire the fire did not enter the town more than a block or so. It’s unlikely that could do that now either. So only the border homes are at risk.

The weather forecast is for high winds towards the town on Monday and very high winds (to 55 mph) on Wednesday but more easterly.

So people need to prepare now.

Now about evacuations. People need to know that they should start moving the belongings they want to save several days before Monday. By then movement will get in the way of firefighters.

I plan to start moving things on Friday.

Can the Post give this information early enough to be effective?

Chances for fire in Los Alamos are to me less than 25%, but people especially in the Western Community may not want to take chances.