Significant monsoon burst pattern will gradually transition to a more typical early August regime beginning Monday-Tuesday.
Until then, a very active pattern will continue especially central and western New Mexico. The focus for torrential rainfall will shift more into western areas of the state today through Sunday. However, any slow-moving thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours and at least localized flooding.
Timing – Flash flooding will be most likely from Noon MDT to 6 p.m. today and again Sunday.
Location – Clusters of new storms will first develop over the higher terrain, with most storms remaining effectively stationary or drifting toward the west or northwest and impacting lower elevations between the Continental Divide and central mountain chain by midday or early afternoon. Steering winds will be even weaker than Friday, further increasing the flash flood threat especially WC/SW areas of the state.
Key Impacts Include:
- Saturated ground from heavy rainfall the past 5 to 6 days will significantly increase the threat of flash flooding with even moderate downpours;
- 3-day total rainfall forecast shows an additional 1 to 3 inches for portions of the western two-thirds of New Mexico. Locally higher amounts are expected; and
- Stronger storms will be capable of torrential downpours and intense rainfall rates up to 2 or 2.5 inches per hour.
Overview – The focus for widespread heavy rainfall will gradually shift more into western New Mexico today and especially Sunday. The monsoon moisture plume will slide east back into central New Mexico Monday before an overall drying and warming trend begins to develop for the remainder of next week.